تأثیر عوامل محیط زیستی بر مهاجرت‌های داخلی در ایران با تأکید بر خشکسالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جمعیت شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 گروه جمعیت شناسی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با توجه به اینکه در سال‌های اخیرخشکسالی ومهاجرت در کانون توجه پژوهشگران و سیاست‌گذاران بوده است. مقاله پیش‌رو با روش ترکیبی سعی کرده‌است رابطۀ میان خشکسالی ومهاجرت داخلی را بررسی‌کند. دربخش کمّی با محاسبۀ خشکسالی 30 سالۀ برای 110 شهرستان کشور با استفاده از شاخص SPI به بررسی ارتباط خشکسالی با میزان مهاجرفرستی در شهرستانهای منتخب پرداخته‌شد. در بخش کیفی، باحضور در دو بخش «نگین‌کویر» و بخش «طسوج» شرایط موجود تحلیل شده‌است. نتایج بخش کمّی نشان داد خشکسالی در مناطق بسیارخشک با میزان مهاجرفرستی آن مناطق همبستگی بالایی دارد ولی در سایر مناطق اقلیمی کشور این رابطه معنادار نبوده‌است. همچنین، نتایج بخش کیفی مطالعه حاکی ازآن است که خشکسالی از دو طریق زندگی افراد ساکن دراین مناطق را تحت تأثیر قرارمیدهد: به‌خطرانداختن معاش و به‌خطرانداختن سلامت. مهاجرت همواره به‌عنوان آخرین گزینۀ حل مسأله مطرح میشود و پیش‌ازآن، افراد ساکن در این مناطق سعی می‌کنند با استفاده از استراتژیهای انطباق با این معضل روبه رو شوند. ساکنان مناطق کمترتوسعه‌یافته درمقایسه با ساکنان مناطق توسعه‌یافته‌تر، امکان کمتری برای انطباق با شرایط جدید دارند و استراتژیهای انطباق در این مناطق نتوانسته جایگزین مناسبی باشد و افراد مجبور به مهاجرت می‌شوند. بنابراین تأثیر خشکسالی بر مهاجرت، تحت تأثیر اقلیم، بسترهای اقتصادی و سطح توسعه مناطق است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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