Estimation of the Economic Value of Non-Market Forest-Recreational Services of Perdanan in Piranshahr City, West Azerbaijan Province

Introduction
Evaluation is the first step in designating the importance of environmental districts and emphasizing their economic aspect. In this research, the economic value of Perdanan forest in Piranshahr city, the most significant functions of which are in the fields of aesthetic, entertainment, climate adjustment, wildlife habitat, protection of plant species, and flowage control, is estimated through two current methods of Contingent Valuation Method and Individual Travel Cost Method. The goal of this evaluation is designating the importance of the protective and recreational functions of Perdanan forest and measuring the Revealed and Expressed Willingness to Pay of the individuals and their effective factors in order to secure the functions of this jungle. Contingent valuation Method (CVM) is always facing with the probability that the individual pays less than his willed amount, due to the conjecture that proclaiming a specific payment might cause the actuality of payment, and as a result, a lower expected value might be estimated. Individual Travel Cost Method (ITCM) concentrates on the recreational use and neglects the protective and other functions, however, it has the advantage of using the real prices over CVM. In this method, no longer does the individual proclaim his Willingness to Pay (WTP), yet by utilizing a set of technics, his WTP is depicted by calculating the replacing prices. Consequently, employing and comparing both of the noted methods would result in more comprehensive outcomes and also reveal the differences of human behaviors in different markets.

Materials & Discussion
The data of the research is gathered by distributing and completing 400 surveys throughout Piranshahr city and Perdanan districts during 1397/2018 spring and summer, which is an appropriate time for tourism. After further scrutiny, 24 surveys were omitted due to the outliers, therefore, the data analysis has been done with 376 surveys. With the resultant information, Logit Model, for reaching WTP function, and Zero-Truncated Negative Binomial Model (ZTNB), for reaching the Travel Demand function, has been estimated to obtain the economic value of Perdanan and the yearly value of the forest has been designated in different scenarios.
The resultant outcome of Logit Model shows that the variables of gender, marital status, household size, monthly income, and the yearly amount of visits to Perdanan are not statistically significant, yet the symbol of estimated coefficients shows that females, married people, those with larger households, with higher monthly income, and those who yearly travel more recurrently to Perdanan have had more WTP to secure the functions of Perdanan. Also, the most important explanatory variable in the model, meaning the bid variable has become significant and per 1000 Tomans of increasing the bid price, the probability of average acceptance lowers approximately 1.6 percent. The variables of education level, NGO membership, and locality are also significant with 99 percent certainty so that it is expectable that with the increase of one unit of education level and change of status from non-NGO member to NGO member, the average probability of acceptance increases 8.1% and 31% and for each unit of change of status from non-local to local, the average probability of acceptance decreases 23%. Therefore, the most effective factors on the payment by individuals to secure functions of Perdanan are NGO membership, locality, education lever, and the suggested fee. Moreover, WTP per person per year in order to secure the functions of Perdanan is estimated around 68000 Tomans and the total yearly economic value of Perdanan under different scenarios is estimated in a range between 1.4 billion to 21.27 billion Tomans. The results of ZTNB model are also implying that the variables of household size, marital status, and gender are not statistically significant but the symbol of estimated coefficients of these variables suggests that people with larger household, married status, and male gender have had more recurrent travels to Perdanan. Nevertheless, the most important factor discussed in ITCM, i.e. the variable of travel costs, is statistically significant on the level of 99% certainty and per 1000 Tomans increase in the travel costs, the average probability of visiting Perdanan will decrease approximately 0.37%. Furthermore, the variables of locality, monthly income, and age are significant with a certainty of more than 99% and with one unit of change of status from non-local to local, the probability of the individual visit to Perdanan increases approximately 5.2% and with the increase of one unit in the individual age and 1000 Tomans monthly income, the probability of visiting Perdanan respectively decreases by 0.3% and increases 0.0074%. The most important factors in individual demand from Perdanan recreational site are, then, locality, travel costs, age, and individual monthly income. Using the estimated coefficients, individual consumer surplus per Visit is estimated at about 53000 Tomans and total consumer surplus in different scenarios is estimated in the range from 4 billion to 60.47 billion Tomans. The resultant outcomes of both methods proved Perdanan forest peculiarly important for residents of Piranshahr and other visitors. Therefore, the authorities and the relevant organizations can utilize these outcomes in financing and efficient decision-making and possibly prioritize securing Perdanan. Moreover, according to the tourism potential of the aforementioned forest, they can help the local population increase their income by installing recreational and welfare facilities.

Results
Various outcomes result from this research that can stand as a base for suggestions in efficient management and utilization of Perdanan forest, including:
1. The results of economic value estimation of Perdanan forest implies high value and importance of this forest. In year, this forest produces use value and non-use value caused by aesthetic, entertainment, climate adjustment, wildlife habitat, protection of plant species, and flowage control to an amount between 5.4 billion and 81.74 billion Tomans.
2. Each year many visits to Perdanan forest take place with average 3.64 visits per person per year that in light of individual consumer surplus of around 53000 Tomans per visit, each year each person pays approximately 0.19 million Tomans to travel to Perdanan, so he evaluates this forest according to this number.
3. Individual expressed WTP per visit is estimated about 18000 Tomans, which if multiplied in average car passengers (4 passengers) equals to 72000 Tomans per car, meaning that the passengers of each car that enters Perdanan site have sum WTP of 72000 Tomans.
4. If the amount of expressed WTP per year per person, i.e. 68000 Tomans, multiplies in the household size, WTP of each household to secure the functions of Perdanan functions will be about 340 thousand Tomans.
5. Investing activities should be devised together with securing the functions and the services of Perdanan and the development of its recreational aspect should not have negative effects on its other aspects. It is possible under the supervision of relevant organizations to prevent, with appropriate planning, visits more than Perdanan’s capacities.