Species Distribution Modeling of the Pallas’s Cat (Otocolobus manul) in Iran Using the Maximum Entropy Algorithm

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Birjand. Iran

2 Department of Environment, Faculty of Fisheries and Environment, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

3 . Department of Wildlife Management, Faculty of Fisheries and Environment, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to model the habitat of the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul) in Iran and to identify the key environmental and climatic variables influencing its spatial distribution, with the aim of providing scientific strategies for the conservation of this species.
Method: The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, recognized as a machine learning method with high predictive capacity, was applied in this research. Species occurrence records were obtained from the Department of Environment of Iran, which encompassed the data collected by rangers, specialists, environmental volunteers, and library sources, resulting in a total of 175 occurrence points across the country. The environmental dataset consisted of 18 variables, including climatic, topographic, and land-use factors, which were extracted and prepared from global databases and cartographic maps provided by the National Cartographic Center of Iran. Habitat modeling was performed in MaxEnt using cross-validation procedures, and the predictive accuracy of the model was assessed based on the area under the curve (AUC) criterion.
Results: According to the results, the AUC value of the model was 0.93, representing a very good predictive performance. Distance from the prey (pika) contributed the most (19.5%) to the habitat suitability for the Pallas’s cat, followed by elevation (18.2%), terrain ruggedness (14.4 %), and mean annual temperature (14.2%). The habitat suitability maps revealed that although the distribution range of the Pallas’s cat in Iran covers a relatively broad geographic extent, it occurred in a patchy pattern within mountainous habitats and areas of moderate to high elevation. The response of the curve analysis demonstrated an increase in the probability of Pallas’s cat occurrence with decreasing distance from the prey (pika) and reaches its maximum in higher elevations and more rugged terrains. Moreover, the species exhibited a preference for areas with moderate mean annual temperatures. These patterns highlighted the combined significance of topographic and climatic variables as key determinants of the species’ spatial distribution.
Conclusions: According to the findings, the presence of the prey (pika) was a key factor in explaining the distribution pattern of the Pallas’s cat, highlighting the species’ trophic dependence on this prey. In addition, elevation and terrain ruggedness were recognized as the most influential topographic variables, playing a decisive role in the species’ habitat selection. Considering the specific habitat preferences of the Pallas’s cat and its patchy distribution across Iran, conservation of primary prey populations, particularly pika and hare, along with the establishment and expansion of protected areas in regions identified as highly suitable habitats should be regarded as priority measures in conservation programs for this species. 

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References

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Journal of Environmental Studies
Volume 51, Issue 2
September 2025
Pages 255-271

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