Estimation on Recreational Value of Tuchal Mountainous Region Using Hickman Two Stages Econometric Model

Introduction
Mountainous region of Tuchal, with a height about 3962 meters above sea level, is located in north of Tehran,
capital of Iran. With regards to population growth, and increasing urbanization, and air pollution issues, it is
known as one of the most important recreational area for health recovery and relaxation among people living in
Tehran. As these spaces are known as public goods with free access, most of the visitors are not informed from
its real utility and values. This usually decline efficient and optimum use of these spaces and causes their
degradation.
The economic values of natural recreational regions not only increase their conservation by users, but also
create more accurate information for decision makers to improve properly other natural regions. It can also be
effective in forecasting requirements, omitting deficiencies and developing tourism industry in the recreational
areas.
Materials and methods
In this study, recreational value of Tuchal region is estimated with contingent valuation method from 227
respondents. The method is used in open-ended way. Two stages method of Hickman has been chosen to
recognize factors affecting on decision in willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of
willingness to pay in the second stage. Required data was gathered via questionnaires and personal interview
with 227 visitors. After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 47% of respondents were willing to
pay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. Table 1 show estimation results of Tobit Model for
willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal region.
Table 1. Estimation results of Tobit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal
Total
Elasticity
Realized
Elasticity
Expective
Elasticity
Statistic t
Normalized
coefficient
Variable
Age (year) -0.09 -1.87 -0.51 -0.4 -0.91
Education (year) 0.0021 0.51 0.083 0.06 0.143
0.00008 5.21 1.1 1.76 86.2
Respondent Income
(IRR1000)
-0.62 -3.11 -0.474 -0.696 -1.17
Number of Family
Members
0.17 0.54 0.37 0.4 0.77
Home Type (Apartment=1
villa=0)
0.079 1.97 0.42 0.17 0.59
Air pollution in workplace
(percentage)
-0.000009 -0.28 -0.097 -0.131 -0.228
Geographical change of
work place(hours)
Fixed Coefficient -0.013 -0.55 - -
R2= 0.71
Hence, in this study, recreational value of Tuchal is estimated with contingent valuation method. The elicit
method used is open-ended. Two stages method of Hickman has been used to recognize factors affecting on
decisions for willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in the
second stage. Table 2 shows the estimation results of Probit Model on willingness to pay for recreational use of
Tuchal.
Table 2. The first stage: Estimation results of Probit Model for willingness to pay
for recreational use of Tuchal
Final Effect
Total weighted
Elasticity
Elasticity
in average
Variable coefficient Statistic t
Sex 0.258 1.91 0.33 0.3 0.061
Age (year) -1.01 -0.75 -0.24 -0.21 -0.003
Education (year) 0.316 0.29 0.015 0.014 0.000116
Number of Family Members -0.77 -2.53 -0.75 -0.74 -0.17
Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.00051 3.2 1.62 1.41 0.00021
0.63 2.03 0.19 0.16 0.24
Home Type (Apartment=1
villa=0)
-0.0901 -1.85 -0.41 -0.39 -0.0005
Geographical change of work
place(hours)
-0.44 3.06 0.53 0.52 0.0029
Air pollution in workplace
(percentage)
Fixed Coefficient 2.73 1.62 0.12 0.1
Correct prediction percentage= 80.3%
McFadden R2 = 0.57
Log-Liklihhod Function=-81.003
Log-Liklihhood (0)= 147.15
After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 82% of respondents was willing to pay entrance fee
for recreational use of the region. The average of WTP was calculated 0.6 US$ per visitor and recreational value
of Tuchal area was estimated about 6000 US$ per hectare, in summer 2012.Other results also showed that
income and facilities of the region (meaningful in 1% level) are the most effective variable in dealing with WTP.
Table 3 shows the estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational
use of Tuchal Region.
Table 3. Second stage: Estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational
use of Tuchal
Variable coefficient Statistic t
Age (year) -29.7 -0.15
Education (year) 33.1 1.14
Number of Family Members -1004.2 -2.76
Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.886 4.01
Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) 768.3 0.83
Geographical change of work place(hours) -2.44 -0.145
Use of flowers and plants at home (percentage) 34.6 1.94
Air pollution in workplace (percentage) 127 2.09
Number of visits (yearly) -1190.2 -1.86
Inverse Mill Ratio 57.24 3.68
Fixed Coefficient 9250.2 5.28
R2= 0.57
D-W=2.05
Results and discussion
Household size, impressiveness of pollution in work or living places of visitors, kind of houses (apartment or
villa) are the next effective variables (meaningful in 5%) on deal for WTP, in order. Although, education level is
important factor and it is significant in 20% level. The age and geographic variety of work place affect just
decision to WTP in the first stage and not deal of it.
With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in the region, it is required to pay more
attention to conservation of natural recreational regions. This is more important in big cities such as Tehran 
where habitants suffer from many kinds of pollution and deficiency of green spaces. The average WTP was 9444
Rls per visitor and recreational value of Tuchal area was estimated about 137888240 Rls per hectare, in summer
2012.
Conclusion
With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in this region, it is required to pay more attention to
conservation of other natural recreational sites with more responsibility. This is more important in big cities such
as Tehran with high level of air pollutions and deficiency of green spaces per capita.