Land use Change Modeling Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS



In recent decades, as a result of population growth, industrial developments, scarcity of sources, etc. more attention has been paid to spatial planning. Spatial planning needs the consideration of different goals, scenarios, criterions and constraints, which leads us to the usage of spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods. The mail goal of this research is to develop a novel model, based on GIS and MCDA methods, for both the assessment of present land uses and the allocation of needed land uses. For this purpose, two models for the calculation of land use suitability and compatibility are developed using MCDA methods of TOPSIS, ELECTRE and SAW, and GIS functions. Finally, a model is developed for the allocation of new land uses, on the basis of parameters such as land use suitability, land use compatibility, cost and difficulty of land use change, and land use demands. In this model, spatial units with lower levels of land use suitability and compatibility are considered and evaluated for change to the more adequate land uses. Besides the analyses of the present condition of land uses, these models provide the possibility of evaluating future land use patterns and scenarios from the point of view of land use suitability, land use compatibility and per capita levels.