دانشگاه تهرانJournal of Environmental Studies1025-862039420140220Estimation on Recreational Value of Tuchal Mountainous Region Using
Hickman Two Stages Econometric ModelEstimation on Recreational Value of Tuchal Mountainous Region Using
Hickman Two Stages Econometric Model17283645910.22059/jes.2014.36459FAHouman LiaghatiAsosiate professor, Department of Environmental Economics, Environmental Science
Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran0000-0003-0604-6328Afsaneh NaeemifarAssisstant professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahr-e-Qods Branch,
Islamic Azad University, Tehran, IranNaghmeh Mobarghei DinanAssisstant professor, Department of Environmental Economics, Environmental Science
Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20130430Introduction<br />Mountainous region of Tuchal, with a height about 3962 meters above sea level, is located in north of Tehran,<br />capital of Iran. With regards to population growth, and increasing urbanization, and air pollution issues, it is<br />known as one of the most important recreational area for health recovery and relaxation among people living in<br />Tehran. As these spaces are known as public goods with free access, most of the visitors are not informed from<br />its real utility and values. This usually decline efficient and optimum use of these spaces and causes their<br />degradation.<br />The economic values of natural recreational regions not only increase their conservation by users, but also<br />create more accurate information for decision makers to improve properly other natural regions. It can also be<br />effective in forecasting requirements, omitting deficiencies and developing tourism industry in the recreational<br />areas.<br />Materials and methods<br />In this study, recreational value of Tuchal region is estimated with contingent valuation method from 227<br />respondents. The method is used in open-ended way. Two stages method of Hickman has been chosen to<br />recognize factors affecting on decision in willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of<br />willingness to pay in the second stage. Required data was gathered via questionnaires and personal interview<br />with 227 visitors. After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 47% of respondents were willing to<br />pay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. Table 1 show estimation results of Tobit Model for<br />willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal region.<br />Table 1. Estimation results of Tobit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal<br />Total<br />Elasticity<br />Realized<br />Elasticity<br />Expective<br />Elasticity<br />Statistic t<br />Normalized<br />coefficient<br />Variable<br />Age (year) -0.09 -1.87 -0.51 -0.4 -0.91<br />Education (year) 0.0021 0.51 0.083 0.06 0.143<br />0.00008 5.21 1.1 1.76 86.2<br />Respondent Income<br />(IRR1000)<br />-0.62 -3.11 -0.474 -0.696 -1.17<br />Number of Family<br />Members<br />0.17 0.54 0.37 0.4 0.77<br />Home Type (Apartment=1<br />villa=0)<br />0.079 1.97 0.42 0.17 0.59<br />Air pollution in workplace<br />(percentage)<br />-0.000009 -0.28 -0.097 -0.131 -0.228<br />Geographical change of<br />work place(hours)<br />Fixed Coefficient -0.013 -0.55 - -<br />R2= 0.71 <br />Hence, in this study, recreational value of Tuchal is estimated with contingent valuation method. The elicit<br />method used is open-ended. Two stages method of Hickman has been used to recognize factors affecting on<br />decisions for willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in the<br />second stage. Table 2 shows the estimation results of Probit Model on willingness to pay for recreational use of<br />Tuchal.<br />Table 2. The first stage: Estimation results of Probit Model for willingness to pay<br />for recreational use of Tuchal<br />Final Effect<br />Total weighted<br />Elasticity<br />Elasticity<br />in average<br />Variable coefficient Statistic t<br />Sex 0.258 1.91 0.33 0.3 0.061<br />Age (year) -1.01 -0.75 -0.24 -0.21 -0.003<br />Education (year) 0.316 0.29 0.015 0.014 0.000116<br />Number of Family Members -0.77 -2.53 -0.75 -0.74 -0.17<br />Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.00051 3.2 1.62 1.41 0.00021<br />0.63 2.03 0.19 0.16 0.24<br />Home Type (Apartment=1<br />villa=0)<br />-0.0901 -1.85 -0.41 -0.39 -0.0005<br />Geographical change of work<br />place(hours)<br />-0.44 3.06 0.53 0.52 0.0029<br />Air pollution in workplace<br />(percentage)<br />Fixed Coefficient 2.73 1.62 0.12 0.1<br />Correct prediction percentage= 80.3%<br />McFadden R2 = 0.57<br />Log-Liklihhod Function=-81.003<br />Log-Liklihhood (0)= 147.15<br />After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 82% of respondents was willing to pay entrance fee<br />for recreational use of the region. The average of WTP was calculated 0.6 US$ per visitor and recreational value<br />of Tuchal area was estimated about 6000 US$ per hectare, in summer 2012.Other results also showed that<br />income and facilities of the region (meaningful in 1% level) are the most effective variable in dealing with WTP.<br />Table 3 shows the estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational<br />use of Tuchal Region.<br />Table 3. Second stage: Estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational<br />use of Tuchal<br />Variable coefficient Statistic t<br />Age (year) -29.7 -0.15<br />Education (year) 33.1 1.14<br />Number of Family Members -1004.2 -2.76<br />Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.886 4.01<br />Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) 768.3 0.83<br />Geographical change of work place(hours) -2.44 -0.145<br />Use of flowers and plants at home (percentage) 34.6 1.94<br />Air pollution in workplace (percentage) 127 2.09<br />Number of visits (yearly) -1190.2 -1.86<br />Inverse Mill Ratio 57.24 3.68<br />Fixed Coefficient 9250.2 5.28<br />R2= 0.57<br />D-W=2.05<br />Results and discussion<br />Household size, impressiveness of pollution in work or living places of visitors, kind of houses (apartment or<br />villa) are the next effective variables (meaningful in 5%) on deal for WTP, in order. Although, education level is<br />important factor and it is significant in 20% level. The age and geographic variety of work place affect just<br />decision to WTP in the first stage and not deal of it.<br />With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in the region, it is required to pay more<br />attention to conservation of natural recreational regions. This is more important in big cities such as Tehran <br />where habitants suffer from many kinds of pollution and deficiency of green spaces. The average WTP was 9444<br />Rls per visitor and recreational value of Tuchal area was estimated about 137888240 Rls per hectare, in summer<br />2012.<br />Conclusion<br />With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in this region, it is required to pay more attention to<br />conservation of other natural recreational sites with more responsibility. This is more important in big cities such<br />as Tehran with high level of air pollutions and deficiency of green spaces per capita.Introduction<br />Mountainous region of Tuchal, with a height about 3962 meters above sea level, is located in north of Tehran,<br />capital of Iran. With regards to population growth, and increasing urbanization, and air pollution issues, it is<br />known as one of the most important recreational area for health recovery and relaxation among people living in<br />Tehran. As these spaces are known as public goods with free access, most of the visitors are not informed from<br />its real utility and values. This usually decline efficient and optimum use of these spaces and causes their<br />degradation.<br />The economic values of natural recreational regions not only increase their conservation by users, but also<br />create more accurate information for decision makers to improve properly other natural regions. It can also be<br />effective in forecasting requirements, omitting deficiencies and developing tourism industry in the recreational<br />areas.<br />Materials and methods<br />In this study, recreational value of Tuchal region is estimated with contingent valuation method from 227<br />respondents. The method is used in open-ended way. Two stages method of Hickman has been chosen to<br />recognize factors affecting on decision in willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of<br />willingness to pay in the second stage. Required data was gathered via questionnaires and personal interview<br />with 227 visitors. After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 47% of respondents were willing to<br />pay entrance fee for recreational use of the region. Table 1 show estimation results of Tobit Model for<br />willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal region.<br />Table 1. Estimation results of Tobit Model for willingness to pay for recreational use of Tuchal<br />Total<br />Elasticity<br />Realized<br />Elasticity<br />Expective<br />Elasticity<br />Statistic t<br />Normalized<br />coefficient<br />Variable<br />Age (year) -0.09 -1.87 -0.51 -0.4 -0.91<br />Education (year) 0.0021 0.51 0.083 0.06 0.143<br />0.00008 5.21 1.1 1.76 86.2<br />Respondent Income<br />(IRR1000)<br />-0.62 -3.11 -0.474 -0.696 -1.17<br />Number of Family<br />Members<br />0.17 0.54 0.37 0.4 0.77<br />Home Type (Apartment=1<br />villa=0)<br />0.079 1.97 0.42 0.17 0.59<br />Air pollution in workplace<br />(percentage)<br />-0.000009 -0.28 -0.097 -0.131 -0.228<br />Geographical change of<br />work place(hours)<br />Fixed Coefficient -0.013 -0.55 - -<br />R2= 0.71 <br />Hence, in this study, recreational value of Tuchal is estimated with contingent valuation method. The elicit<br />method used is open-ended. Two stages method of Hickman has been used to recognize factors affecting on<br />decisions for willingness to pay in first stage and other factors affecting on deal of willingness to pay in the<br />second stage. Table 2 shows the estimation results of Probit Model on willingness to pay for recreational use of<br />Tuchal.<br />Table 2. The first stage: Estimation results of Probit Model for willingness to pay<br />for recreational use of Tuchal<br />Final Effect<br />Total weighted<br />Elasticity<br />Elasticity<br />in average<br />Variable coefficient Statistic t<br />Sex 0.258 1.91 0.33 0.3 0.061<br />Age (year) -1.01 -0.75 -0.24 -0.21 -0.003<br />Education (year) 0.316 0.29 0.015 0.014 0.000116<br />Number of Family Members -0.77 -2.53 -0.75 -0.74 -0.17<br />Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.00051 3.2 1.62 1.41 0.00021<br />0.63 2.03 0.19 0.16 0.24<br />Home Type (Apartment=1<br />villa=0)<br />-0.0901 -1.85 -0.41 -0.39 -0.0005<br />Geographical change of work<br />place(hours)<br />-0.44 3.06 0.53 0.52 0.0029<br />Air pollution in workplace<br />(percentage)<br />Fixed Coefficient 2.73 1.62 0.12 0.1<br />Correct prediction percentage= 80.3%<br />McFadden R2 = 0.57<br />Log-Liklihhod Function=-81.003<br />Log-Liklihhood (0)= 147.15<br />After deletion of incomplete responses and protest zeros, 82% of respondents was willing to pay entrance fee<br />for recreational use of the region. The average of WTP was calculated 0.6 US$ per visitor and recreational value<br />of Tuchal area was estimated about 6000 US$ per hectare, in summer 2012.Other results also showed that<br />income and facilities of the region (meaningful in 1% level) are the most effective variable in dealing with WTP.<br />Table 3 shows the estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational<br />use of Tuchal Region.<br />Table 3. Second stage: Estimation results of linear regression model for the amount of entrance fee for recreational<br />use of Tuchal<br />Variable coefficient Statistic t<br />Age (year) -29.7 -0.15<br />Education (year) 33.1 1.14<br />Number of Family Members -1004.2 -2.76<br />Respondent Income (IRR1000) 0.886 4.01<br />Home Type (Apartment=1 villa=0) 768.3 0.83<br />Geographical change of work place(hours) -2.44 -0.145<br />Use of flowers and plants at home (percentage) 34.6 1.94<br />Air pollution in workplace (percentage) 127 2.09<br />Number of visits (yearly) -1190.2 -1.86<br />Inverse Mill Ratio 57.24 3.68<br />Fixed Coefficient 9250.2 5.28<br />R2= 0.57<br />D-W=2.05<br />Results and discussion<br />Household size, impressiveness of pollution in work or living places of visitors, kind of houses (apartment or<br />villa) are the next effective variables (meaningful in 5%) on deal for WTP, in order. Although, education level is<br />important factor and it is significant in 20% level. The age and geographic variety of work place affect just<br />decision to WTP in the first stage and not deal of it.<br />With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in the region, it is required to pay more<br />attention to conservation of natural recreational regions. This is more important in big cities such as Tehran <br />where habitants suffer from many kinds of pollution and deficiency of green spaces. The average WTP was 9444<br />Rls per visitor and recreational value of Tuchal area was estimated about 137888240 Rls per hectare, in summer<br />2012.<br />Conclusion<br />With regards to high recreational value estimated per hectare in this region, it is required to pay more attention to<br />conservation of other natural recreational sites with more responsibility. This is more important in big cities such<br />as Tehran with high level of air pollutions and deficiency of green spaces per capita.https://jes.ut.ac.ir/article_36459_3ea0473fff39a64a31ea25be96502f16.pdf